For the past few years, each Call of Duty release has established new sales records. Will Black Ops 2 do the same this November?
EEDAR’s Jesse Divnich told GamesIndustry he thinks it will, dismissing other analysts’ concerns as a reaction to the general downward trend of boxed triple A sales.
“The entire HD market is very soft at the moment, and it is understandable that retailers, publishers, and analysts are likely to be conservative on any Black Ops II forecast,” he said.
“Every year we question whether the Call of Duty franchises can set new records, and for the last four years they have proven us wrong. Personally, I wouldn’t under-estimate Activision, even against the odds of a more torpid HD market this holiday season.”
M2′s Billy Pidgeon agreed.
“Call of Duty should continue to do very well and is likely to continue to break records as it will sell into a larger installed base of consoles,” he said.
Meanwhile, in the opposite corner, RW Baird’s Colin Sebastian things ageing tech means blockbuster games don’t have as much appeal as earlier in the generation.
“We are forecasting Black Ops 2 to sell roughly the same number of copies as Modern Warfare 2 in 2011,” he said.
Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan is also among the doubters.
“I don’t think Modern Warfare 3 is going to sell more than the last Black Ops, so I doubt that this one will break a record,” he predicted.
“I think that Call of Duty is a phenomenon, selling way more than 20 million units annually, and it’s unrealistic to think that number can grow meaningfully with each annual release.”
Pachter isn’t the first analyst to cast doubts on Modern Warfare 3′s chances of out-performing Black Ops over the past few weeks.
Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 is due on PC, PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 in November, and pre-orders have already out-paced Modern Warfare 3′s.